A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
