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Increasing concerns are present over the potential of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the wish to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a policy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry cautioned on recently that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, state television has broadcast training completions of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year civil war followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was concluded – a action that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.