🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still